Paranoid and Ready
‹ Wealth and Documents

Physical Gold and Silver

What to consider

1913The Federal Reserve is created. Gold now stands behind the currency, not in front.
1923Weimar hyperinflation. The mark goes to a trillion to the dollar; gold still buys food.
1931Britain abandons the gold standard. Sterling falls a quarter in weeks.
1933Executive Order 6102. American gold is confiscated, then revalued from 20.67 to 35.
1944Bretton Woods. The dollar is fixed to gold at 35, every other currency to the dollar.
1965The US strips silver from its coinage. The last monetary metal leaves pockets.
1971Nixon closes the gold window. Bretton Woods ends and gold becomes a price.
1980Peak near 850 dollars, on double digit inflation. It takes 28 years to return.
1999The Washington Agreement caps central bank selling. The UK had sold the bottom.
2008Crisis and the first QE. Mints run out of blanks and coin prices leave spot behind.
2011Runs past 1,900 dollars, then falls for four straight years. It goes down as well.
2022Russian reserves are frozen. Central bank buying passes 1,000 tonnes a year.

A commodityGold and silver are mined, refined and traded like any raw material. One global price, quoted in dollars per ounce, every trading day.
No counterpartyNobody issues it and nobody owes it. There is no bank to fail, no platform to freeze the account and no ledger to be locked out of.
It pays nothingNo interest, no dividend, no rent. The only return is the price. Storage and insurance cost money every year it sits there.
Insurance, not growthIt is held for the decade it is needed, not the decade it is not. Judged like a policy premium rather than like a stock.
A hedge in volatile timesCurrency debasement, inflation, bank failure and capital controls tend to arrive together. Metal is the asset that is not inside that system.
Gold is monetaryDemand is roughly half jewellery, a quarter investment, a quarter central banks. Industry uses almost none of it, so the price tracks fear and rates.
Silver is industrialMore than half of demand is solar panels, electronics, brazing and medicine. Much of it is consumed and never comes back.
Silver moves harderA far smaller market than gold, so the same money moves it further, up and down. It is the volatile half of the pair.
The ratioOunces of silver to one ounce of gold. Around 15 to 1 under the old coinage standards, 50 to 90 in the floating era.
The risk moves houseIt is heavy, it is not covered by deposit insurance, and it can be stolen. You trade financial risk for physical risk, you do not delete it.

Check the dealerYears trading, a registered company, a real address and a phone number a person answers. Look for reviews that are not hosted on their own site.
Two prices, side by sideA dealer should publish what they buy at as well as what they sell at. If nobody will quote a buy price today, you do not know what you own.
The premiumWhat you pay above spot. Small coins carry the most, large bars the least. Ask for it as a number before you buy, not after.
Purity999.9 for gold, 999 for silver. Below that it is scrap, and it is priced as scrap.
RefinersValcambi, PAMP Suisse, Argor-Heraeus, Metalor, Perth Mint, Rand Refinery, Royal Canadian Mint, all on the LBMA good delivery list. A known bar sells the same day in any country; an unknown one waits for an assay first, and the waiting is what costs you.
MintsKrugerrand, Canadian Maple Leaf, Austrian Philharmonic, British Britannia and Sovereign, American Eagle. Sovereign mints, recognised at any counter anywhere.
Assay card and serialsEvery bar arrives sealed in a card. Keep it sealed, and check the number stamped on the bar against the number printed on the card before the packaging is opened. A bar out of its card has to be tested before anyone will price it.
Allocated, not pooledIf you do not take it home: specific numbered bars in your name, held outside the banking system, with the vault operator and the city written into the contract along with your right to collect. Pooled or unallocated is a share of a heap, and if the dealer fails you are a creditor rather than an owner.
Keep the paperworkEvery invoice, for every purchase. Provenance is part of the value and part of the tax position when you sell.

United StatesCapital gains tax applies on sale, often at the higher 28 percent collectibles rate rather than standard long-term rates. Sales tax on purchase varies by state; several exempt bullion above a minimum size.
European UnionInvestment-grade gold (995+ purity, recognised coins and bars) is VAT-exempt across the EU. Silver is not, and carries standard VAT, typically 19 to 25 percent depending on the country.
United KingdomUK legal tender gold coins (Sovereigns, Britannias) are exempt from Capital Gains Tax entirely. Other gold and all silver are not, and VAT applies to silver at the standard rate.
AustraliaGST does not apply to investment-grade bullion (99.5%+ gold, 99.9%+ silver). Capital gains tax applies on profit at sale, at marginal rates unless held long enough for the discount.
ElsewhereRules vary sharply by country and change with little notice. Confirm the current VAT or sales tax treatment and the capital gains position with a local advisor before buying in volume.
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

Ray Dalio

Why empires rise and fall over 500-year cycles. Debt, currency, internal conflict, and geopolitical power shifts.

Amazon
When Money Dies

When Money Dies

Adam Fergusson

Weimar Germany's hyperinflation day by day. What economic collapse actually looks like at the human scale.

Amazon
Broken Money

Broken Money

Lyn Alden

Why the financial system is failing and what comes next. History of money, monetary policy, and emerging alternatives. 538 pages of deeply researched analysis.

Amazon
The Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning

William Strauss & Neil Howe

Generational cycle theory predicting recurring 80-year crises. Written in 1997, eerily accurate since.

Amazon
The Collapse of Complex Societies

The Collapse of Complex Societies

Joseph Tainter

The scholarly gold standard. Why civilizations invest in complexity until the costs outweigh the benefits.

Amazon
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Jared Diamond

Easter Island, Norse Greenland, Anasazi, Rwanda. Why some societies adapt and others don't.

Amazon

Not financial advice. Informational page only. Consult independent professional advice if needed first.